Daniele Ganser, Friedensforschung

Peak Oil and Switzerland's Opportunities in Clean Tech back

Peak Oil and Switzerland's Opportunities in Clean Tech
Author(s) of chapter
Dr. Daniele Ganser
01. 10. 2011
Erschienen bei
Swiss Institute for Peace and Energy Research (SIPER) & DWS Investments, 2011
deutsch & englisch
open article
By 2020, as productivity of oil fields starts to wane, maximum output, or “peak oil” of under 100 million barrels per day (mbd) will be reached. Oil supply shortages will lead to price shocks, possibly plunging economies into recessions. The price of crude oil will also sink as a result, but when peak oil has been reached, the price will increase to well over USD 150 and stay high and very volatile. Amid increasing upwards pressure on oil prices, world demand for clean tech solutions requiring little or no oil will increase. As soon as broad market penetration is achieved, demand for crude oil will sink. In the new clean tech market in Switzerland, heating oil will be replaced by heat pumps, renovations and insulation of houses, solar energy and photovoltaic technologies. With regards to transportation, due to the rising cost, demand for diesel and petrol will decline, while highly fuel-efficient vehicles (requiring less than 4 liters per 100 kilometers), hybrid and pure electric vehicles will grow in popularity. The aviation industry will find no alternative substitute for cheap kerosene, meaning that high tickets for air travel will partially eliminate demand. On the whole, demand for electricity will increase. Due to climate change, in Switzerland, coal-fired power generation will become increasingly unattractive. Gas-fired plants could be used to meet domestic power demand, providing the country firmly adheres to plans for a gradual phase-out of nuclear energy, which the Swiss Federal Council aims to achieve following the accident in nuclear plants in Fukushima. In sum, the demand for renewable green energy generated by water, wind, the sun, biomass and geothermal will increase significantly, securing strong growth for the clean tech industry.